PolymarketFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoEste mercado está fechado e aguardando uma resolução confirmada.
Aguardando resolução verificada
A CoinRithm aguarda uma liquidação confirmada pelo provedor antes de tratar este mercado como resolvido.
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 29 de out. de 2026, 13:06 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidade implícita atual
Top 10 99%Líder entre 4 opções
Top 10 99%Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
13,3 mil €
Liquidez
6,3 mil €
Liquidez médiaContratos em aberto
3,4 mil US$
Spread
2.1 pt
Spread moderadoComentários
0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado ontem
Desatualizado28/10/26, 21:52 UTC1/07/27, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Top 1099%
Top 598%
Top 197%
Top 397%
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PolymarketRegras
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon".
- Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.