PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Sim 50.5%-1.0pt
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
140,3 €
Liquidez
1,6 mil €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
50.0% / 51.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
2
Variação 7d
+3.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 minutos
14/01/26, 00:53 UTC5/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- - Democrats have a seat count of 235 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 51 or more in the Senate
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
- The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
2 plataformas cotam atualmente este mercado. A probabilidade de referência ponderada pela liquidez da CoinRithm para Referencia CoinRithm é de 45%. As cotações diferem cerca de 6 pontos percentuais entre as plataformas mais afastadas.
Referencia CoinRithm 45% · 2 plataformas · 6 pt de dispersao entre venues
Mercados abertos
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt17%
- Gavin Newsom16%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
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- Delcy Rodríguez-27.5pt40.2%
- No Head of State+0.3pt1%
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- Third Term99%
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- Democrats sweep60.2%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt29.6%
- Republicans sweep-1.6pt9.2%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Blue tsunami in 2026??
- A Polymarket cota Yes em 51% em 21 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Blue tsunami in 2026? é resolvido?
- Blue tsunami in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 5 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Blue tsunami in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Onde mais Blue tsunami in 2026? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Kalshi.