Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 70.7%
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13
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado22/03/26, 03:03 UTC1/01/27, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Full Autonomy: The AI independently identified the target and initiated the strike.
- (Note: If a human was monitoring "on-the-loop" but the AI executed the strike before they could or did intervene, this counts as YES).
- Generative Architecture: The system utilized a transformer-based or multimodal architecture capable of semantic reasoning.
- If the exact architecture is classified, credible reporting must explicitly describe the system as using generative AI, LLMs, VLMs, VLAs, or complex semantic reasoning.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 70.7% em 24 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? é resolvido?
- Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, 2026, credible reporting confirms a generative AI system (e.g., LLM, VLM, VLA) autonomously authorized and executed a successful lethal strike against a human target without a human operator issuing the final execution command.