Previsão da comunidade atual
Sim 74.7%
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15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado2/08/23, 04:58 UTC1/01/50, 02:59 UTC
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This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.
- It will resolve as No otherwise.
- This time period refers to the date when the supernova has been observed, not when the supernova itself occurs (which may be many hundreds of years in the past)
- This market is an adaptation of this question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/6827) ---------------------------
- Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being SN1604, in 1604 CE.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 75% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? é resolvido?
- Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2050.
- Como Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.