Will U.S. gasoline CPI (SA) fall 3% or more month-over-month in the July 2026 release?
InflationOne-OffCommoditiesManifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: No (17%)
Resolvido: 12 de ago. de 2026, 12:36
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
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Previsão da comunidade atualSim 83%
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 dias
Desatualizado5/08/26, 22:5412/08/26, 12:25
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes83%
No17%
83%
17%
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Regras
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for July 2026 shows that the seasonally adjusted gasoline (all types) index fell by 3.0% or more month-over-month from June 2026. **Series:** CUSR0000SETB01 ("Gasoline (all types) in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, seasonally adjusted"), available free at https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CUSR0000SETB01 **Resolution:** Compute (July 2026 index / June 2026 index - 1) x 100 from the FIRST BLS July 2026 CPI release.
- Resolves YES if that value is -3.0% or lower (i.e. a decline of 3.0% or more).
- Resolves NO if it is higher than -3.0% (including any increase).
- The June 2026 value at market creation is 341.980; the May 2026 value is 378.660.
- Use only the seasonally adjusted series named above.
- Do NOT use the not-seasonally-adjusted gasoline index, the broader energy index (CUSR0000SA0E), headline or core CPI, retail price surveys (AAA, GasBuddy, EIA weekly), crude oil prices, or later annual revisions — unless BLS corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution.
