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Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?

GeopolíticaOne-OffRussia / Ukraine Europe3m

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 53.7%

Previsores

20

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 6 horas

Desatualizado

2/08/26, 16:02 UTC1/01/27, 03:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

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Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if at least one Ukrainian drone—including uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) or uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)—impacts, crashes, or explodes on the land territory or within the territorial waters of the Kaliningrad Oblast before the active armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends.
This includes drones that are intercepted or shot down by Russian air defenses but whose debris subsequently crashes on Kaliningrad territory.
"Before the war is over" is defined as prior to the official implementation of a mutually recognized ceasefire, the signing of a bilateral peace treaty, or the formal conclusion of the active military conflict between Russia and Ukraine as widely reported by credible international consensus.
If the war concludes without any Ukrainian drone making physical contact with Kaliningrad territory, this market resolves to NO.
Preemptive measures, such as the declaration of "drone threats," airspace closures, or GPS spoofing, do not qualify as a "hit" unless physical impact or debris contact on Kaliningrad territory is confirmed.

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Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over??: A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 54% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
Quando Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over? é resolvido?: Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
Como Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over? é liquidado?: A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria

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