Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRússia / Ucrânia3a
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Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 03:24 UTC · política pm-quality-4
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Desatualizado6/02/24, 19:51 UTC2/01/30, 04:59 UTC
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Minor constituent as in frozen conflict zone/exclave.
- Resolves YES if Ukraine declares war (or special military action, etc) on, annexes, or invades Transnistria, Abkhazia, or Kaliningrad.
- (They are already so with the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimean Republics regardless of your own view and will not count towards market resolution.) Still resolves yes even if they immediately cede the land to someone else, eg Transnistria to Moldova, or Kaliningrad to Poland.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frozen_conflict#/media/File:Geopolitics_South_Russia2.png