Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 69%
Previsores
29
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado15/07/26, 05:22 UTC1/06/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWill we see a recorded air temperature reading of 150 degrees before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegras
The original resolution criteria incorrectly states that the strongest El Niño ever had a three-month mean RONI of +2.69°C. According to the resolution source, the record is actually +2.4°C. However, for fairness purposes I will NOT be changing the original resolution Criteria.
- This market will resolve to YES if the RONI value from the source below reaches +2.7°C or higher.
- If the peak RONI value from the source below never reaches or exceeds the above value (+2.7°C), this market will resolve to NO. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the following condition is met for any three-month running mean season during the El Niño event peaking in late 2026 or early 2027:
- The official Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) reaches +2.70°C or higher (strictly exceeding the historical record of +2.69°C set during the 1982-1983 winter).