Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 52.2%
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28
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
15/07/26, 05:22 UTC1/06/27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWave height of 10.0 ft or higher will be recorded off the San Mateo Coast (Pacifica/Half Moon Bay) by November 15, 2026.
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRegras
The original resolution criteria incorrectly states that the strongest El Niño ever had a three-month mean RONI of +2.69°C. According to the resolution source, the record is actually +2.4°C. However, for fairness purposes I will NOT be changing the original resolution Criteria.
- This market will resolve to YES if the RONI value from the source below reaches +2.7°C or higher.
- If the peak RONI value from the source below never reaches or exceeds the above value (+2.7°C), this market will resolve to NO. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the following condition is met for any three-month running mean season during the El Niño event peaking in late 2026 or early 2027:
- The official Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) reaches +2.70°C or higher (strictly exceeding the historical record of +2.69°C set during the 1982-1983 winter).
Mercados abertos
WeatherPOLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
- 32°C+69.0pt100%
- 27°C or below-0.1pt0%
- 28°C-0.3pt0%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 154,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 148,6 mil
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-7.0pt59%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 92,3 mil
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 8?
- 19°C+54.0pt98%
- 20°C-31.0pt2%
- 16°C or below-0.2pt0%
+8 mais resultados
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above63.8%
- 88° to 89°19.1%
- 86° to 87°13.3%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 84,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 79,3 mil
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 8?
- 25°C+94.5pt100%
- 19°C or below-3.0pt0%
- 20°C-6.0pt0%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
- 29°C+70.5pt100%
- 26°C or below-8.4pt0%
- 27°C-10.4pt0%
+8 mais resultados
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 52% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded? é resolvido?
- Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de junho de 2027.
- Como Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The original resolution criteria incorrectly states that the strongest El Niño ever had a three-month mean RONI of +2.69°C. According to the resolution source, the record is actually +2.4°C. However, for fairness purposes I will NOT be changing the original resolution Criteria.