What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
1.0 pts (24h)ClimaOne-Off5m
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
At least 2.5°C · —
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Preço registado
At least 2.5°C 76%Líder entre 6 opções
At least 2.5°C 76%Qualidade do mercado
47 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
192,6 €
Contratos em aberto
5,7 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
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At least 2.5°CSpread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 34 minutos
2/07/26, 23:00 UTC5/04/27, 14:00 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · At least 2.5°C
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Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketRegras
If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
- The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
Regras de cada resultado
- At least 2.5°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2.0°C to 2.4°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 2.0 and 2.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1.0°C to 1.4°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 1.0 and 1.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1.5°C to 1.9°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 1.5 and 1.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 0.5°C to 0.9°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 0.5 and 0.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 0.5°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is below 0.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.