PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Sim 92%+0.1pt
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
1,4 mil €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
91.1% / 93.4%
Spread
2.3 pt
Spread moderadoComentários
0
Variação 7d
-0.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
24/07/26, 16:36 UTC1/04/27, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWill Southern California experience snow this winter?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWhen will Beaver Creek Resort open for the 26/27 winter season?
KalshiRegras
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
- A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season.
- An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
- This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season.
- If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
Mercados abertos
WeatherPOLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
- 32°C+69.0pt100%
- 27°C or below-0.1pt0%
- 28°C-0.3pt0%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 154,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 148,6 mil
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-7.0pt59%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 92,3 mil
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 8?
- 19°C+54.0pt98%
- 20°C-31.0pt2%
- 16°C or below-0.2pt0%
+8 mais resultados
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above63.8%
- 88° to 89°19.1%
- 86° to 87°13.3%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 84,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 79,3 mil
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 8?
- 25°C+94.5pt100%
- 19°C or below-3.0pt0%
- 20°C-6.0pt0%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
- 29°C+70.5pt100%
- 26°C or below-8.4pt0%
- 27°C-10.4pt0%
+8 mais resultados
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)??
- A Polymarket cota Yes em 92% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? é resolvido?
- Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de abril de 2027.
- Como Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.