Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?
IAOne-Off2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 96.3%
Previsores
23
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 31 minutos
15/04/26, 05:03 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsWill AI top level capabilities generally be judged by question and answer benchmarks in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will there be a publicly available Nintendo Switch 2 emulator that can play through five Nintendo games?
Manifold MarketsWill the HappyHorse-1.0 weights become publicly available before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegras
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, an AI model (or a service powered by such a model) is released for general public access—defined as being available for use via web interface, API, or open-weights download—that is widely recognized by the AI research community to possess reasoning, coding, or creative capabilities comparable to or exceeding Anthropic's "Mythos" model.
- If no such model is publicly available by this date, the market will resolve to "No."
- Resolution will be based on a consensus of leading AI publications, industry analysis, and technical benchmarks.
- Anthropic has characterized certain iterations or planned developments within their model hierarchy as possessing advanced capabilities, sometimes internally codenamed or referred to in competitive contexts.