Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 76.8%
Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado7/04/26, 16:49 UTC3/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (9/4-9/11)
KalshiWhat will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegras
I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 606,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 721 mil
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 mais resultados
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 mais resultados
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 411,2 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 77% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? é resolvido?
- Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? deverá ser resolvido em 3 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.