Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsEleição2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 57%
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19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado19/11/25, 13:48 UTC30/11/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
- Clarifications
- The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).
- The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.
- A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 57% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? é resolvido?
- Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria