Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 61.9%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado6/08/25, 10:21 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Since the invention of generative pre-trained transformers in 2018 (later popularized by OpenAI's marketing genius with the release of ChatGPT in 2022), the AI capabilities have been largely stagnant.
- The market resolves YES if there is another significant development (likely a new technology or a discontinuous shift in GPT capabilities) by the end of 2028.
- Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided additional details on what constitutes a discontinuous shift in GPT capabilities or significant development:
- A discontinuous shift would be an ability to do something beyond autocomplete/stochastic autocomplete
- Current models produce results that get exponentially weaker the farther away from the initial input - if this changed, it would count as significant
- If models become capable of autocompleting with something creative (rather than just averaging from training data), this would be significant
