Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 66.9%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado10/04/25, 18:10 UTC1/01/35, 22:59 UTC
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Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
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FutuurRegras
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a civil war breaks out in Turkey at any point between now and December 31, 2034.
- For the purposes of this market, a "civil war" is defined as an armed conflict within Turkey that:
- Results in at least 1,000 battle-related deaths within a 12-month period
- Involves organized armed groups fighting against the Turkish government or against each other
- Is recognized as a civil war by major international organizations (such as the UN) or by multiple credible conflict monitoring organizations
