Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
One-OffGeopolíticaCrime e justiçaPolítica3aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 75.4%
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 23 horas
Desatualizado30/11/23, 11:11 UTC1/01/30, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketAfD in a German state government?
KalshiWill any serving head of state/government of a UN-recognised country become vegan by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a head of state and/or government of a G20 country with a background in Effective Altrusim (EA) by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the first to have a transgender head of state or government?
Manifold MarketsRegras
So far there have been 2 assassinations (Idriss Déby of Chad, Jovenel Moïse of Haiti).
- Resolves according to this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinated_and_executed_heads_of_state_and_government
- Executions count too, if it ends up on this article it counts.
- Only incumbent heads of state, so Shinzo Abe's assassination doesn't count.
- If the wikipedia list is deleted or has the criteria for inclusion significantly changed, resolves according to the same guidelines it has at market creation (deaths of incumbent heads of government/state from execution/assassination) as faithfully as possible according to my judgement.
- I will not bet.