Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
IAOne-OffRegulamentaçãoPolítica dos EUA2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 78.3%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado28/04/23, 12:32 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 to control the export of frontier AI models, which are defined as those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today).
- The policy may also restrict API access.
- This policy aims to limit the proliferation of AI models that pose significant risks, such as powerful AI technology falling into the wrong hands.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
