Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 79.4% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

IAOne-Off2m

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 79.4%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 22 horas

Desatualizado

1/04/23, 18:39 UTC1/01/27, 05:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.

If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
This is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.