Will the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2030 be less than 1.5 million?
GeopolíticaOne-OffOriente Médio3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 60.5%
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Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado26/01/25, 22:04 UTC2/02/30, 07:59 UTC
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As per the latest update from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, the Palestinian population of the Gaza strip as of the beginning of 2025 was estimated at 2.1 million, about 160,000 less than at the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023.
- Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/1/gaza-population-falls-6-percent-since-start-of-war-statistics-agency-says
- A further decline to below 1.5 million over the next five years would indicate some combination of further civilian deaths and emigrations (voluntary or forced) on a large scale.
- This question will resolve YES iff reliable sources (the PCBS if it still exists, or other regional sources or news organizations) estimate the number of Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip as of the beginning of 2030 to be strictly less than 1.5 million.
- Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purposes of this market, "the Gaza Strip" will be defined by its current geographic boundaries.
- If the territory of the Gaza Strip is expanded, population in the expanded areas (i.e., outside these current geographic boundaries) will not be counted.
