Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 61.9%
Previsores
42
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado25/08/24, 09:02 UTC1/01/27, 06:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves No if there is no second crewed Starliner Flight.
- Resolves Yes if Second Crewed Flight of Starliner takes Crew to ISS and brings them back on Earth safely, irrespective of delays.
- If problems arise such as Helium Leak or Thruster Malfunction, will still Resolve Yes if crew is brought home safe on Starliner.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve No if there is no second crewed Starliner flight by program shutdown (not just by market close date).
- Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator plans to extend the close date.
Mercados abertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 103,1 mil
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- € 57,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 57,4 mil
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 mais resultados
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
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- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- € 817,9 mil
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 62% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? é resolvido?
- Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves No if there is no second crewed Starliner Flight.