Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month 100%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
23
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 19 horas
Desatualizado9/08/24, 21:51 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
100%
0%
0%
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Based on this post:
- [tweet]Separate markets for each of the three clauses, plus one for all three of them being true.
- Operationalizations:
- "Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems": Minimal problems is somewhat subjective, but I'll interpret it as meaning there's nothing big and glaring that's reported right away.
- "the named outcome": Resolves when the mission flies, not when the contract is awarded. "with cargo" = no crew, more stuff in it than there was on the previous uncrewed demo.
- "Starliner-1": The next crewed Starliner flight, whether it uses the Starliner-1 designation or not.
Mercados abertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 103,1 mil
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- € 57,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 57,4 mil
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- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 mais resultados
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- € 817,9 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out??
- A Manifold Markets cota Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month em 100% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? é resolvido?
- Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Based on this post: