Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 85.6%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado20/05/26, 04:22 UTC1/10/26, 04:20 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out. i should want to use it just as much as openai’s model and anthropic’s for coding mnx.fi.
- Flash/instant/mini doesn't count.
- Should be pro or similar. 3.2 pro-preview, 3.5 pro, 4 pro all okay
- Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Speed considerations: If a Gemini model lacks a fast tier (e.g., like Opus's fast tier) and that alone causes the creator to prefer other models, that is not sufficient to resolve NO.
- However, the model must still be reasonably fast to be considered frontier.
Mercados abertos
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 86% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding? é resolvido?
- Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de outubro de 2026.
- Como Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out. i should want to use it just as much as openai’s model and anthropic’s for coding mnx.fi.