Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
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Desatualizado19/08/25, 21:10 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%
- Top 7 LLMs Ranked in 2025: GPT-4o, Gemini, Claude & More.
- To establish the 2025 baseline:
- On Dec 31, 2025, identify the LLM with the highest average score across the "Core Benchmark Suite" (defined below)
- This becomes the baseline for calculating 10% improvement
- CORE BENCHMARK SUITE (to avoid cherry-picking):
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 83% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? é resolvido?
- Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%