Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
TecnologiaOne-OffSpace9m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 98.8%
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11
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado7/09/24, 23:13 UTC2/07/27, 06:59 UTC
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https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833: > The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.
- These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars.
- If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
- Will the first part of this tweet happen?
- Update 2026-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves Yes if at least one Starship is plausibly sent to Mars (does not require a landing attempt).
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 99% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens? é resolvido?
- Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de julho de 2027.
- Como Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833: > The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.