Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Starship 55%
Previsores
51
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado23/09/24, 14:14 UTC2/01/35, 06:59 UTC
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Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph fo SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- If either program is cancelled, successor programs will be used instead.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail??
- A Manifold Markets cota Starship em 55% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail? é resolvido?
- Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2035.
- Como Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.