Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 64.6%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado11/08/26, 14:29 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the first orbital launch attempt of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket successfully reaches its target orbit.
- This market will resolve to NO if the first launch attempt fails to reach orbit (e.g., due to an explosion, a failure of the first or second stage, or any other anomaly that prevents the vehicle/payload from achieving a stable orbit).
- Key details and edge cases:
- Definition of Success: Success is defined as the rocket's upper stage successfully achieving orbit, or deploying its payload (or a simulated test mass) into the planned target orbit, as officially announced by Rocket Lab, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), or independent satellite tracking databases (e.g., Jonathan's Space Report or Space-Track.org).
- Booster Recovery: The recovery, landing, or reusable splashdown attempt of the first-stage booster is not required for a "YES" resolution, unless Rocket Lab defines the entire mission as a failure solely due to a landing anomaly.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 65% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ? é resolvido?
- Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria