Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 71%
Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 49 minutos
Atrasado9/02/26, 15:14 UTC30/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.