Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 77.8%
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado9/02/26, 15:14 UTC30/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government in 2026?
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PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 78% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? é resolvido?
- Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria