Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 95.2%
Previsores
22
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado27/10/25, 22:27 UTC30/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) formally enters into a governing coalition with at least one established mainstream German political party (such as CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, or Alliance 90/The Greens) at either the federal or state (Land) level, resulting in a signed coalition agreement, before or on December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve to "No" if no such official coalition agreement is formed by the specified date.
- For resolution, verifiable evidence of a signed coalition agreement published by the participating parties, or official government formation documents, will be required.
- Casual parliamentary cooperation on specific votes, tacit support for motions, or agreements at the municipal/local level will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
- The "Brandmauer" (firewall) is a long-standing political consensus among Germany's established mainstream parties to prevent formal cooperation with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) é resolvido?
- German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) deverá ser resolvido em 30 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria