Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
One-OffPolítica comercialGeopolítica2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 24 de out. de 2026, 12:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 57.1%
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10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado20/08/26, 02:12 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, the official 7-day moving average of ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait falls strictly below 15.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The source is the 7-day moving average line on this page: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- On Sunday Aug. 16, 2026, the value was 29.
- The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.