Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 07:03 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 82.9%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado18/06/26, 14:10 UTC4/11/26, 12:25 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Headline PCE inflation in September
KalshiWill September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsUS Core PCE inflation (month-over-month) — September
FutuurUS Core PCE inflation (year-over-year) — September
FutuurOctober 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
KalshiWill December 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that headline PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.
- Use the all-items/headline PCE price index in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering September 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month.
- Resolve NO if the initial September 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative.
- Use BEA's reported rounded one-decimal percent change.
- Do not use core PCE excluding food and energy, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution.
- If the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the September 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by November 4, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"future_releases_at_creation": "May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; September 2026 scheduled for 2026-11-04.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026", "release_date": "2026-11-04", "september_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "september_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "september_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "september_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8}, "metric": "PCE price index percent change from August 2026 to September 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, and September 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "September 2026 core PCE inflation excludes food and energy, while this market uses the headline/all-items PCE price index.", "September 2026 CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for 2026-11-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026", "series": "Headline/all-items PCE price index", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
