Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 58%
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado18/06/26, 14:10 UTC4/11/26, 12:25 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Headline PCE inflation in Aug 2026
KalshiWill September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsAugust 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
KalshiWill core CPI be above headline CPI in August 2026?
KalshiWill August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsRegras
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that headline PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.
- Use the all-items/headline PCE price index in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering September 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month.
- Resolve NO if the initial September 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative.
- Use BEA's reported rounded one-decimal percent change.
- Do not use core PCE excluding food and energy, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial September 2026 release before resolution.
- If the September 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the September 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by November 4, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"future_releases_at_creation": "May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; September 2026 scheduled for 2026-11-04.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026", "release_date": "2026-11-04", "september_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "september_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "september_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "september_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8}, "metric": "PCE price index percent change from August 2026 to September 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, and September 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "September 2026 core PCE inflation excludes food and energy, while this market uses the headline/all-items PCE price index.", "September 2026 CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 for 2026-11-04 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026", "series": "Headline/all-items PCE price index", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
Mercados abertos
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 90,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,3 mi
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 358,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 35,6 mil
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 554,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 33,8 mil
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 mais resultados
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 79,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 7,6 mil
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
Criptos relacionadas
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 58% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? é resolvido?
- Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? deverá ser resolvido em 4 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026 reports that headline PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.