Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?
PolíticaGeopolítica3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNot on NATO area/Not at all 70%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado23/05/25, 16:15 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first European NATO member state that Russia attacks and/or occupies between May 23, 2025, and December 31, 2029.
- An "attack" is defined as a military assault involving Russian armed forces crossing into the territory of a NATO member state. "Occupation" refers to Russian forces establishing control over any part of a NATO member state's territory.
- The market will resolve based on credible reports from reputable news organizations or official government statements confirming such an event.
- If no such attack or occupation occurs by the end of 2029, the market will resolve to "the named outcome."
- Tensions between Russia and NATO have escalated in recent years, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
