Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
IAOne-OffRegulamentaçãoUS Politics1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 53%
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81
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado6/03/24, 09:06 UTC1/01/28, 05:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if at any point in time, I can legally, from a computer in the continental US connected directly to the internet with no VPN, without entering any information that suggests that I am not in the US, bet at least $100 in a prediction market where winners can easily cash out whatever currency the market uses into real USD in their (US) bank account.
- Resolves NO on resolution date if the YES criterion has not been met.
- UPDATE 3/12 17:13 EST: Adding the requirement that I can easily create a market on any reasonable question for $100 or less. "Easily" means the question goes up within one business day of me posting it.
- The $100 maximum cost includes any membership I would need to get, as well as time cost if the process takes longer than 5 minutes.
- For these purposes, I'll value my time at $1/minute.
- Here is the sha256 hash of the question I will try to make a market on for resolution of this market:
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 53% em 18 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028? é resolvido?
- Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if at any point in time, I can legally, from a computer in the continental US connected directly to the internet with no VPN, without entering any information that suggests that I am not in the US, bet at least $100 in a prediction market where winners can easily cash out whatever currency the market uses into real USD in their (US) bank account.