Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 55.8%
Previsores
18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado23/06/26, 17:31 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolves YES if, by 23:59 ET on Dec 31, 2027, Meta Platforms makes a real money prediction market product (the app reported by NYT as internally codenamed "Arena," or any successor/rebrand) publicly available to general users in at least one market, via official launch or public beta.
- Users should be able stake and win real money or real-money-equivalent value (cash, crypto, redeemable credits).
- Sweepstakes or promotional models count as long as they pay out real-money value.
- Pure play-money, points-only, or free-to-play versions with no cash-equivalent payout do not count.
- Waitlist, internal-only test or unreleased announcement does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
