Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
EsportesIAOne-OffXadrezTecnologia2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 99%
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40
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 15 minutos
21/01/25, 23:41 UTC2/01/27, 04:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
This resolves to YES if we are confident that DeepSeek's r1 or DeepSeek's v3 would have been held responsible for a catastrophic risk, anywhere in the world, as it would have been judged by the vetoed SB 1047.
- Future versions of r1 or v3 (including something like r1.5 or v3.1) DO count towards this, but anything labeled r2 or higher, or v4 or higher, does not.
- This resolves to NO if that does not happen.
- This resolves early to NO if DeepSeek or others have released new models such that it is essentially impossible for the event to take place, AND the market is trading reliably at <5%, and someone actually notifies me of this.
- If we are actively uncertain if this event happened, this resolves to my best estimate % chance it happened - which will be the market price if I think market is reasonable and not manipulated.
- I will likely not answer ANY clarification questions, period, after my recent experiences.
