Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 76%
Sim 76%Previsores
74
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado24/03/23, 01:08 UTC1/01/30, 05:59 UTC
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For this market to resolve "YES":
- We need three major polls with a >50% "yes" response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- If we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.