Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 76%
Previsores
74
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado24/03/23, 01:08 UTC1/01/30, 05:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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KalshiRegras
For this market to resolve "YES":
- We need three major polls with a >50% "yes" response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- If we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- € 241,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 128 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 349,4 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 76% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: For this market to resolve "YES":