Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 53%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado13/04/26, 23:16 UTC1/02/28, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "There are only four skills: design, technical..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Preventing extinction from ASI on a $50M year..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegras
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Only Law Can Prevent Extinction is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 53% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é resolvido?
- Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2028.
- Como Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.