Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 67.8%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado16/04/26, 12:05 UTC31/12/27, 12:48 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
By legal consequences I mean: 1) Having the cops called on him and landing himself in jail overnight, even if the case later gets dropped 2) Getting sued in a strong enough case that it would survive to trial (doesn't get tossed in a motion to dismiss or summary judgement), or forces a significant cash settlement (settlement values may not be public, I'll use my best judgement)
- Unrelated legal troubles (DUIs, or him being caught doing drugs, or being sued for SAing someone in a frat party) will not be considered.
- I will not bet on this market.
Mercados abertos
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+11.5pt65%
- Yes-11.5pt35%
- Volume total
- € 347,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,4 mil
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- € 9,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 6,8 mil
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026-0.1pt5%
- Volume total
- € 498,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,1 mil
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 mais resultados
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.5pt42.6%
- 60++1.5pt38.6%
- 20–40+1.4pt10.9%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-7.5pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 68% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"? é resolvido?
- Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: By legal consequences I mean: 1) Having the cops called on him and landing himself in jail overnight, even if the case later gets dropped 2) Getting sued in a strong enough case that it would survive to trial (doesn't get tossed in a motion to dismiss or summary judgement), or forces a significant cash settlement (settlement values may not be public, I'll use my best judgement)