Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 92.5%
Previsores
71
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado24/03/23, 05:16 UTC31/12/39, 23:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.
- If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h-53baa02e69ba)
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 93% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? é resolvido?
- Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2039.
- Como Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.