Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 80.1%
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12
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado16/02/26, 03:39 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
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KalshiRegras
https://www.ft.com/content/f1ec830c-2f08-4b1a-b70f-7330f260753c
- Microsoft has announced their intention to train their own frontier LLM / foundation model, independent of OpenAI.
- Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, stated that Microsoft is now prioritizing the development of its own in-house "frontier foundation models." He described this as a move toward "true AI self-sufficiency" to reduce the company's near-total dependence on OpenAI for its flagship products.
- The reports highlight a model lineup referred to as MAI (including the MAI-1 preview mentioned in earlier contexts).
- These models are being trained on massive "gigawatt-scale compute" clusters and are expected to be released "sometime this year" (2026).
- Market resolves to YES if Microsoft succeeds in training and releasing their own frontier-level language model before the end of 2026.