Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 87.9%
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42
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado2/01/26, 03:19 UTC1/01/27, 05:59 UTC
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Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO).
- However, Metr has stated they are working on a second study.
- Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The METR blog post from 2026-02-24 (uplift update) does not count as a qualifying study for this market, as the creator considers it an update on research direction rather than a full study.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
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- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 88% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study? é resolvido?
- Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will Metr find AI reduces developer productivity in their second study? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is reason to believe Metr will never release another study, the market will resolve N/A (rather than NO).