Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 86.6%
Previsores
82
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado26/12/23, 22:37 UTC1/01/32, 22:59 UTC
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I work as a software engineer.
- A lot of my specialization is in being able to write good code, but AI has been getting better and better at that lately.
- I hope I maybe have a backup as working on AI because logically speaking it seems like AI research would be the "last job to get automated", but I also know a lot of non-AI coding, e.g. backend development, frontend development, programming language theory, data science, etc., and these skills might get obsoleted by AI.
- I'm not really good at ops work so I'm not counting that.
- Resolution criterion: If I subjectively feel that my opportunities for coding jobs have become worse due to AI, for at least 6 months duration starting before 2032, this market resolves YES.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
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- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 87% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032? é resolvido?
- Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2032.
- Como Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I work as a software engineer.