Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?
IAOne-OffTecnologia2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 23:17 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 55.6%
Previsores
1
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado18/06/26, 15:10 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
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FutuurRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, as of December 31, 2028, at least half of the top 15 of all evaluated individuals by average Elo rating across the language models tracked on the Center for AI Safety (CAIS) AI Values Dashboard (https://values.safe.ai/) or the best replication of it are pro AI safety.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Current top rated AI safety people include:
- Yoshua Bengio
- Stuart Russell
