Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"?
EsportesOne-OffTecnologiaSoccer5aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 74.1%
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Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado8/05/26, 20:02 UTC30/06/32, 23:59 UTC
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A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).
- Resolves YES if, in calendar year 2030, traffic fatalities have NOT declined relative to each city's pre-commercial-launch baseline year in any of the 5 largest Waymo deployment cities.
- Resolves NO if at least one such city shows a decline relative to its pre-Waymo baseline.
- The 5 cities (locked in at market creation): Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta.
- Pre-commercial-launch baseline year: the full calendar year before paid public Waymo service began in that city.
- Resolution source: NHTSA FARS data, CY2030 vs each city's baseline year.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 74% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? é resolvido?
- Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de junho de 2032.
- Como Will it still be true in 2030 that "traffic deaths have not gone down in any city where Waymo is operating"? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: A recurring claim in the AV-skeptic debate is that traffic deaths have not declined in any city where Waymo operates (source).