Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 81.4%
Previsores
27
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado23/07/26, 02:27 UTC1/01/35, 03:24 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
Manifold MarketsIf Isaac King dies or is incapacitated, will his markets be resolved?
Manifold MarketsIf I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegras
See: @/IsaacKing/if-i-set-my-curtain-on-fire-and-don
- Resolves whenever that market resolves.
- If it gets extended, so will this market.
- If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for at least 1 minute, this resolves YES.
- If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, it will resolve to whatever percentage of a minute the curtain was on fire for (e.g. 30 seconds = 50%).
- If Isaac sets his curtain on fire for less than a minute, but does not know/did not record how long, it will resolve NO.
Mercados abertos
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+4.5pt65%
- Yes-4.5pt35%
- Volume total
- € 347,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 27,4 mil
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Volume total
- € 497,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,5 mil
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+2.0pt83.2%
- No-2.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- € 676 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 8,2 mil
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- € 9,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 4,6 mil
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No84%
- Yes-1.0pt16%
- Volume total
- € 577,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 3,7 mil
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 mais resultados
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Isaac King set his curtain on fire??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 81% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Isaac King set his curtain on fire? é resolvido?
- Will Isaac King set his curtain on fire? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2035.
- Como Will Isaac King set his curtain on fire? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: See: @/IsaacKing/if-i-set-my-curtain-on-fire-and-don