Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 24 de jul. de 2026, 15:10 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Previsão da comunidade atualOil blockade, regime stays 90.5%+1.9ptLíder entre 4 opções
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 dias
Desatualizado29/03/26, 14:5531/12/26, 23:59
Tendências
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
Oil blockade, regime changes7%
Tendência de volume
$2023 de jul.2d de dados24 de jul.
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Resolution Criteria:
- Oil blockade:
- Defined as a significant disruption in Iranian oil exports compared to pre-blockade.
- Must be effectively imposed, confirmed by either an official U.S. announcement, or by at least two independent major outlets.
- Any of these will count: naval blockade, tanker quarentine or a seizure of Kharg Island, so long as it causes an impact similar to what we saw in Venezuela on quantifiable information (tanker count or export volume in pre blockade vs post blockade week, month or bimester.
- Half order of magnitude basis.