Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 88%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado7/04/26, 15:33 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsA major AI conference will require bomb scanners or other security to prevent a terrorist attack by 2026
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there is an official determination by the U.S. government—specifically the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, or the Office of the Director of National Intelligence—that a fatal attack carried out on U.S. soil was planned, directed, or materially supported by the government of Iran or an Iranian state-backed entity.
- For the purposes of this market, "U.S. soil" is defined as the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories.
- If no such official determination is made, or if an attack occurs but is attributed solely to independent actors without proof of Iranian state sponsorship as defined above, the market will resolve to "No."
- The question of Iranian involvement in attacks on U.S. soil involves complex assessments by the U.S. intelligence community regarding the distinction between Iranian-backed proxy groups and direct operations by state security apparatuses, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
- The U.S. government has historically documented efforts by Iran to target dissidents and officials within the United States, often utilizing criminal networks or third-party actors.
