Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 51.9%
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36
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado25/05/25, 20:34 UTC31/12/27, 21:32 UTC
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Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass.
- Resolves N/A if no hardware product before 2028.
- Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are intentionally not defining "flop" further.
- Resolution will be based on their subjective judgment, using the standard of "I'll know it when I see it".
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume total
- € 225,9 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 157 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 348,3 mil
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- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 52% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop? é resolvido?
- Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass.