Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 95.4%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado6/02/24, 00:14 UTC13/02/99, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Sam Altman Run For President of the USA by 2060?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, who will represent the Democratic Party for President of the USA?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump keep the position of the President of the USA for all of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will run for President of Brazil?
KalshiWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiWill Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?
KalshiRegras
Resolves NO if I die or decide that I don't want to run.
- Resolves YES if I run for president (has to be in major, trustworthy news source, I can't just say "I'm running for president lol")
- This is not a trick question--I was born in the USA and will be eligible to run once I am 35 years old.
- I think I want to try running but I'm not sure yet.
- I won't bet in this market.
- Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's IRL friends are aware of this market and can resolve it in the event of the creator's death.
Mercados abertos
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+82.9pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-82.9pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.1pt0%
- Volume total
- € 847,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 668,8 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.5pt45.5%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,7 mi
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will I ever run for president of the USA?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will I ever run for president of the USA é resolvido?
- Will I ever run for president of the USA deverá ser resolvido em 13 de fevereiro de 2099.
- Como Will I ever run for president of the USA é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves NO if I die or decide that I don't want to run.