Will I be credibly accused of sexual assault or sexual harassment before 2028?
One-OffCrime e justiçaSociedade e cultura1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96.7%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado22/03/23, 04:35 UTC1/01/28, 08:00 UTC
Tendências
Regras
This market works as follows:
- If any accusation is made, I'll try to link to any relevant evidence in the comments, and anyone else can also provide any evidence they believe to be relevant.
- After it doesn't seem like any more evidence is likely to be forthcoming, I will ask Manifold users to vote on whether they believe the accusation is credible.
- A certain voter believes the accusation is "credible", if, after looking at the evidence, they think there's at least a 50% chance that I did sexually assault or sexually harrass someone as described in the accusation.
- (Each voter should use whatever definition of "sexual assault" and "sexual harrassment" they believe to be most correct.)
- If it seems like one person may have created a bunch of accounts in order to manipulate the votes, I'll ask the Manifold admins to look into it.
