Will "Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 85.6% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will "Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? é resolvido?

Will "Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2027.

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A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+19.0pt95%
• December 15,+21.0pt94%
• November 30,+39.5pt93%

+9 mais resultados

Volume total

€ 5,2 mi

Volume 24h

€ 307,3 mil

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+4.0pt96.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+6.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+16.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T27.9%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.3pt20.2%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.3pt17.3%

+7 mais resultados

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-2.9pt54.6%
• Gemini-0.3pt33.2%
• ChatGPT-1.0pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-6.4pt88.5%
• Anthropic+1.2pt8.3%
• OpenAI+1.4pt2.1%

+18 mais resultados

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31+1.6pt95%
• October 31+4.5pt36%
• October 29+8.0pt35%

+17 mais resultados

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